Trump Can’t Win The General Election

This is what the Trump campaign wants you to believe, but the facts don’t back it up.  In the general election, you have to convince the American people to vote for you, not hardcore disenchanted GOP voters.

Five Thirty Eight is one of the best sites I’ve ever found for discussing statistical analysis. They show that Trump has almost zero chance of winning.

enten-datalab-trumphated

If you are more hated, nationally, than Al Sharpton, what do you think your chances are of being elected President? Think Sharpton could ever get elected?

Gallup says Trump has the highest unfavorability rating of any Presidential candidate ever.  Worse than Hillary Clinton.  If he’s less liked than Hillary Clinton, how’s he going to beat her in the general election?  The reality is, he’s not.

This chart shows the problem that Trump has.  He is at the bottom of the chart below candidates that have lost the general election.

Trump_favorability

With numbers like that, his chances of winning in the general are as close to nil as you can get. Unless he’s defeated in the primaries, the GOP will almost certainly lose the general election to Hillary Clinton. (I don’t think Bernie has a chance, because the Democrats don’t believe in free and fair elections, and they are not going to let Bernie get the nomination.)

The problem is, the media has built Trump up by giving him massive amounts of free publicity and talking about how amazing his results have been.  As you can see in the following chart, Trumps vote share has been far below his share of news coverage and even below his favorability among GOP voters.  That doesn’t augur well for the general, when the media will shift heavily to supporting the Democrat candidate and go very negative on the GOP candidate (as they have done for decades.)

Trump_news_share

Trump will not win the general. 28% of REPUBLICANS say they will never vote for him.
enthusiasm

To give you an idea how bad it is, a poll of people regardless of party affiliation found that Trump was by far the least liked candidate in the general election. Taking into account Republicans, Independents and Democrats, Trump scored a MINUS 70. Cruz, by comparison, scores a PLUS 11 and Carson scores a PLUS 26. Rubio has a PLUS 22.

Trump supporters keep saying that he will win in a landslide, but there is no evidence that is true and TONS of evidence that the opposite is true. They have gotten a false impression of Trump’s electability because of his polls and wins in the primaries and caucuses. The fact is he loses to both Rubio and Cruz in head to head competition. IOW, he can’t even win the GOP nomination in a one on one competition. If he can’t do that, he’s not going to beat Hillary.

If you really want to win in November and keep Hillary out of the White House, I would think long and hard about supporting Trump. He can’t overcome his negatives. He will lose.

New commenters and replies with links are moderated